2024: new ideas and positioning

Much to be thankful for and excitement for what lies ahead

Disclaimer

kairoscap is NOT a financial advisory service, nor is its author qualified to offer such services.

All content on this website and publications, as well as all communications from the author, are for educational and entertainment purposes only and under no circumstances, express or implied, should be considered financial, legal, or any other type of advice. Each individual should carry out their own analysis and make their own investment decisions.

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2023 in retrospective

What a year! After a very bad start, with China's much anticipated reopening disappointing in its scope and speed, and recession fears stemming from tight monetary policy clouding the OECD outlook, the performance of commodities and cyclical industries, which were our main positions, was truly weak, putting the portfolio's return at -15% at its lowest point. We have navigated this swampy terrain by adapting companies, sectors and weights as the underlying reality changed so did our portfolio, closing, as of today, at +33.29%, with a disappointing last few weeks after reaching 41% at the beginning of December.

The initial objectives, which I maintain year after year, were to obtain a positive double-digit return (check) and to outperform any benchmark index (here, we have fallen short, with a spectacular Nasdaq that has been 7.3% more profitable than me). The figures shown are those of my personal portfolio, whose composition and movements I share on the community Discord (currently, the discussion is in Spanish, as the proportion of subscribers is 20-1), but the model portfolio is very similar, and only differs slightly in the position weights and use of options. The trades closed in the model portfolio during the year (current price is the closing price of the trade) have been as follows:

Of course, not all have been successes, far from it; I have made many mistakes such as Orpea, Verde, Kistos... and many more will surely come in the future, as it is part of the process, especially in cyclical companies. The important thing, in these cases, is always to learn, improve, and manage risk so that these sharp falls do not tarnish the overall result or break the compounding process of the portfolio.

Evolution of this publication

This first year of premium subscription has been one of much growth, both in quality and variety of content and in the scope of the publication, which ends with a retention rate of 92%, a very positive feedback, and a growth of 18% per month, much higher than the best of my expectations when I started it. The newsletter has reached the 137th position worldwide in the finance category. Thank you!

Although I am happy about these milestones, my goal is not growth for growth's sake, but the construction of a bigger project: we have built the reference community in Spanish language through Kairoscap's Discord, with a very high level and the best experts in the topics we deal with (commodities, shipping, options...), where to go by default to be informed about all the advances, news and new market ideas, and with an unbeatable atmosphere, and I want to extend it to the international sphere.

With the foundations already in place, the plan is to continue to increase the quality and variety of the information offered: at your request, we will carry out a monthly live broadcast to discuss in more detail all the new investment ideas, portfolio movements and resolve all the doubts that arise, and we have concentrated the number of positions and ideas in the portfolio a little more. In 2024 we will update all the investment ideas published so far and will continue to do a new analysis every month, which will no longer be published openly afterwards.

I want to combine this ambitious goal of being the reference community with being the one that offers the most attractive price, so that the value/price ratio has no comparison. I remind you that this is the last week before the price increase of the publication: from the 20th the subscription will increase by 10%, up to 132€/year (11€/month) or 16.5€/month if you do not take the annual option. Many of you tell me that you have payment problems (Spanish banks sometimes refuse Stripe payments); if this is your case, write me a private message on Twitter and we'll solve it in a moment.

Main investment themes for 2024

This year, as we have just seen, has been, once again, spectacular, but the demands are not reduced for the future. On the contrary, the ambition is greater for the new year, where the initial objectives remain the same, as could not be otherwise:

• Positive, double-digit returns.

• To outperform all the benchmark indices.

The investment themes we are going to play have changed significantly with respect to those of 2023, and we have even closed almost all our positions in oil, which was my most important idea just 12 months ago. The macroeconomic environment is always changing, and internal sector dynamics are equally dynamic, so our job is to read the current situation well and adapt to the changes. We will now review the main investment ideas that I see as interesting for this year: